Impact of Low Skeletal Muscle Mass on Long-Term Outcomes in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated with Trans-Arterial Radioembolization: A Retrospective Multi-Center Study.

Trans-arterial radioembolization (TARE) is a form of radiation therapy performed for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) via selective intra-arterial injection of Yttrium-90-loaded microspheres. This was a multi-center retrospective study of consecutive patients with HCC who underwent TARE between July 2009 and May 2019. Using pre-treatment computed tomography imaging, the total cross-sectional area (cm2) of the abdominal skeletal muscle at the third lumbar vertebra was measured. The skeletal muscle index (SMI) was calculated by normalizing the muscle area to patient height. In total, 347 patients (median age, 65 years; 284 male) were included in the study. A total of 108 (31.1%) patients had portal vein tumor thrombus (PVTT), and 126 (36.3%) were classified as LSMM. The median overall survival (OS) was 28.1 months (95% CI, 24.8-35.7), and median progression-free survival was 8.0 months (95% CI, 6.4-9.4). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that LSMM (hazard ratio [HR], 1.36; 95% CI, 1.00-1.85, p = 0.05), PVTT (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.33-2.49, p < 0.01), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (≥200 ng/mL) (HR 1.41; 95% CI, 1.04-1.92, p = 0.03), and albumin-bilirubin grade (2-3) (HR 1.74; 95% CI, 1.24-2.43, p < 0.01) were independently associated with poor OS. TARE provided favorable long-term outcomes for patients with advanced HCC. Pre-treatment LSMM independently associated with survival, suggesting its utility as a surrogate biomarker for identifying TARE candidates.

A Phase I/IIa Trial of Yttrium-90 Radioembolization in Combination with Durvalumab for Locally Advanced Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

PURPOSE: Synergistic effect of radiotherapy and immunotherapy for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been reported. This phase I/IIa pilot trial evaluated preliminary efficacy and safety of combination of radioembolization with yttrium-90 microspheres (Y90-radioembolization) and durvalumab in patients with locally advanced unresectable HCC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with Child-Pugh score ≤ 7 and locally advanced HCC, defined as Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B HCC or BCLC-C disease without extrahepatic metastases, received Y90-radioembolization followed by intravenous durvalumab 1,500 mg 7 to 14 days after Y90-radioembolization and every 4 weeks thereafter. Primary endpoint was time to progression (TTP) assessed by modified RECIST (mRECIST). Secondary endpoints included overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), objective response rate (ORR) determined by mRECIST, and safety. RESULTS: All 24 patients enrolled received Y90-radioembolization and 23 received at least one dose of durvalumab. Median follow-up duration was 19.0 months (range, 2.2-24.2). Median TTP was 15.2 months [95% confidence interval (CI), 6.1-not estimated]. Median OS was not reached and 18-month OS rate was 58.3% (95% CI, 36.4-75.0). Median PFS was 6.9 months (95% CI, 5.4-15.2). Seven (29.2%) patients had a complete response and 13 (54.2%) had a partial response; ORR was 83.3% (95% CI, 62.6-95.3). Eleven (47.8%) patients experienced any-grade treatment-related adverse events. Two (8.7%) patients had grade 3 treatment-related adverse events (neutropenia and fever). None experienced any treatment-related serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with locally advanced unresectable HCC, the combination of Y90-radioembolization and durvalumab demonstrated promising efficacy and safety, warranting further evaluation in large-scale controlled trials.

Association of Chronic Hepatitis B Infection and Antiviral Treatment With the Development of the Extrahepatic Malignancies: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: Epidemiologic studies suggest that chronic hepatitis B (CHB) is a risk factor for various primary extrahepatic malignancies. Our aim was to evaluate the associations of CHB and nucleos(t)ide analog (NA) treatment with the risk of the development of extrahepatic malignancies. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted an 18-month landmark analysis using nationwide claims data from the National Health Insurance Service of South Korea. Patients newly diagnosed with CHB in 2012-2014 (n = 90,944) and matched-controls (n = 685,436) were included. Patients with CHB were further classified as the NA-treated (CHB+/NA+, n = 6,539) or the NA-untreated (CHB+/NA-, n = 84,405) group. Inverse probability of treatment weighting analysis was applied to balance the treatment groups. Time-varying Cox analysis was performed to evaluate time-varying effect of NA treatment. The primary outcome was the development of any primary extrahepatic malignancy. Development of intrahepatic malignancy and death were considered as competing events. RESULTS: During the study period (median = 47.4 months), 30,413 patients (3.9%) developed any extrahepatic malignancy. The CHB+/NA- group had a higher overall risk of extrahepatic malignancy than the CHB+/NA+ group (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR] = 1.28; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.45; P < .001) or controls (aSHR = 1.22; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.26; P < .001). There was no difference in the risk of extrahepatic malignancy between the CHB+/NA+ group and the controls (CHB+/NA+ v control: aSHR = 0.96; 95% CI, 0.84 to 1.08; P = .48). In time-varying Cox analysis, the CHB+/NA- patients were associated with a higher risk of extrahepatic malignancy than the CHB+/NA+ patients (aSHR = 1.37; 95% CI, 1.23 to 1.52; P < .001). CONCLUSION: Patients with CHB have an elevated risk of developing primary extrahepatic malignancy. Long-term NA treatment was associated with a lower risk of extrahepatic malignancy development among patients with CHB.

Aspirin use and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B with or without cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Studies on differential effect of aspirin therapy on HCC risk across the spectrum of liver diseases are lacking. We investigated the association between aspirin use and risks of HCC, liver-associated death, and major bleeding in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with or without cirrhosis. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We identified 329,635 eligible adults with CHB from 2007 through 2017, using the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, including patients who received aspirin for ≥90 consecutive days (n = 20,200) and patients who never received antiplatelet therapy (n = 309,435). Risks of HCC, liver-associated mortality, and major bleeding were estimated in a propensity-score-matched cohort (19,003 pairs), accounting for competing risks. With a median follow-up of 6.7 years, 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC was 9.5% in the aspirin-treated group and 11.3% in the untreated group (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio [aSHR], 0.85; 95% CI, 0.78-0.92). However, among patients with cirrhosis (2479 pairs), an association of aspirin use with HCC risk was not evident (aSHR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.85-1.18). Cirrhosis status had a significant effect on the association between aspirin use and HCC risk (pinteraction , n = 0.04). Aspirin use was also associated with lower liver-associated mortality (aSHR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.71-0.90). Moreover, aspirin use was not associated with major bleeding risk (aSHR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.99-1.21). CONCLUSIONS: Aspirin use was associated with reduced risks of HCC and liver-associated mortality in adults with CHB. Cirrhosis status had a substantial effect on the association between aspirin use and HCC risk.

Effectiveness of Lenvatinib Versus Sorafenib for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Hepatic Decompensation.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Lenvatinib and sorafenib are currently available to treat patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, since the clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of lenvatinib and sorafenib included only patients with Child-Pugh class A, little is known about the effectiveness of the treatments in patients with hepatic decompensation. We compared the effectiveness of lenvatinib and sorafenib in decompensated patients with unresectable HCC. METHODS: Consecutive patients who were classified as Child-Pugh class B or C and received lenvatinib or sorafenib as first-line systemic therapy for unresectable HCC between November 2018 and April 2020 at a tertiary referral center were included in this retrospective study. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS), and the secondary outcomes were progression-free survival (PFS), time-to-progression, best overall tumor response, and safety profiles. RESULTS: Among 94 patients, 34 received lenvatinib and 60 received sorafenib. The median OS was 4.1 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.9-5.2): 4.2 months (95% CI, 2.9-5.3) for lenvatinib and 4.1 months (95% CI, 2.7-6.4) for sorafenib. The treatment regimen was not associated with significant improvement in OS after adjusting for covariables (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.92; 95% CI, 0.54-1.54; P = 0.74). The treatment regimen was not an independent predictor of PFS (lenvatinib vs. sorafenib; aHR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.48-1.24; P = 0.28). HRs were maintained even after balancing with the inverse probability treatment weighting method. Objective response rates were 11.8% and 6.7% in patients receiving lenvatinib and sorafenib, respectively (P = 0.45). Ten patients in both groups (five in the lenvatinib group and five in the sorafenib group) underwent dose modification due to adverse events, and significant difference was not observed between the treatment groups (P = 0.49). CONCLUSION: The effectiveness of lenvatinib and sorafenib was comparable for the treatment of unresectable HCC in decompensated patients.

An artificial intelligence model to predict hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with chronic hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several models have recently been developed to predict risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Our aims were to develop and validate an artificial intelligence-assisted prediction model of HCC risk. METHODS: Using a gradient-boosting machine (GBM) algorithm, a model was developed using 6,051 patients with CHB who received entecavir or tenofovir therapy from 4 hospitals in Korea. Two external validation cohorts were independently established: Korean (5,817 patients from 14 Korean centers) and Caucasian (1,640 from 11 Western centers) PAGE-B cohorts. The primary outcome was HCC development. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort and the 2 validation cohorts, cirrhosis was present in 26.9%-50.2% of patients at baseline. A model using 10 parameters at baseline was derived and showed good predictive performance (c-index 0.79). This model showed significantly better discrimination than previous models (PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, REACH-B, and CU-HCC) in both the Korean (c-index 0.79 vs. 0.64-0.74; all p <0.001) and Caucasian validation cohorts (c-index 0.81 vs. 0.57-0.79; all p <0.05 except modified PAGE-B, p = 0.42). A calibration plot showed a satisfactory calibration function. When the patients were grouped into 4 risk groups, the minimal-risk group (11.2% of the Korean cohort and 8.8% of the Caucasian cohort) had a less than 0.5% risk of HCC during 8 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: This GBM-based model provides the best predictive power for HCC risk in Korean and Caucasian patients with CHB treated with entecavir or tenofovir. LAY SUMMARY: Risk scores have been developed to predict the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with chronic hepatitis B. We developed and validated a new risk prediction model using machine learning algorithms in 13,508 antiviral-treated patients with chronic hepatitis B. Our new model, based on 10 common baseline characteristics, demonstrated superior performance in risk stratification compared with previous risk scores. This model also identified a group of patients at minimal risk of developing HCC, who could be indicated for less intensive HCC surveillance.

A Prognostic Prediction Model of Transarterial Radioembolization in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: SNAP-HCC.

BACKGROUND: Prognosis prediction in patient with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial radioembolization (TARE) remains difficult. The aim of this study was to develop a prognostic model to aid in the decision to use TARE. METHODS: A total of 174 patients in Korea who underwent TARE for HCC as the initial treatment were included. We developed a prediction model for overall survival (OS) based on independent risk factors for OS and validated the model by bootstrap method. RESULTS: The median maximal size of the tumors was 8.2 cm, the median number of tumors was 2, and the median albumin level was 4.0 g/dL. Portal vein tumor thrombosis was found in 46.0% (Vp1-3 [39.7%] and Vp4 [6.3%]). Four independent risk factors associated with OS (maximal tumor size, tumor number, albumin, and portal vein tumor thrombosis) were used to develop the SNAP-HCC score. Bootstrap validation of the scoring index determined that the Harrell's c-index for OS was 0.756 (95% confidence interval: 0.729-0.783). Patients grouped based on their SNAP-HCC (scores 0-5) were well discriminated, with significant differences between the groups (all P < 0.05). Patients with SNAP-HCC < 3 showed significantly longer OS than patients with SNAP-HCC ≥ 3 (P < 0.001). The respective survival probabilities at years 1 and 3 were 0.81 and 0.73 in the low-risk (SNAP-HCC < 3) and 0.32 and 0.14 in the high-risk (SNAP-HCC ≥ 3) patients. CONCLUSIONS: The SNAP-HCC scoring system predicted the outcome of HCC patients undergoing TARE as an initial treatment. This model could be helpful for initial planning the treatment of HCC patients.

Impact of HBeAg on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk During Oral Antiviral Treatment in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Antiviral treatment from hepatitis B envelope antigen (HBeAg)-positive status may attenuate the integration of hepatitis B virus DNA into the host genome causing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We investigated the impact of HBeAg status at the onset of antiviral treatment on the risk of HCC. METHODS: The incidence of HCC was evaluated in Korean patients with chronic hepatitis B who started entecavir or tenofovir in either HBeAg-positive or HBeAg-negative phase. The results in the Korean cohort were validated in a Caucasian PAGE-B cohort. RESULTS: A total of 9143 Korean patients (mean age, 49.2 years) were included: 49.1% were HBeAg-positive and 49.2% had cirrhosis. During follow-up (median, 5.1 years), 916 patients (10.0%) developed HCC. Baseline HBeAg positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. However, in the non-cirrhotic subcohort, HBeAg positivity was independently associated with a lower risk of HCC in multivariable (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26-0.66), propensity score-matching (aHR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.28-0.76), and inverse probability weighting analyses (aHR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.28-0.70). In the Caucasian cohort (n = 719; mean age, 51.8 years; HBeAg-positive, 20.3%; cirrhosis, 34.8%), HBeAg-positivity was not associated with the risk of HCC either in the entire cohort or cirrhotic subcohort. In the non-cirrhotic subcohort, none of the HBeAg-positive group developed HCC, although the difference failed to reach statistical significance (aHR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.00-1.67). CONCLUSIONS: This multinational cohort study implies that HBeAg positivity at the onset of antiviral treatment seems to be an independent factor associated with a lower risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis B without cirrhosis, but not in those with cirrhosis.

Deep learning model for diagnosing gastric mucosal lesions using endoscopic images: development, validation, and method comparison.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Endoscopic differential diagnoses of gastric mucosal lesions (benign gastric ulcer, early gastric cancer [EGC], and advanced gastric cancer) remain challenging. We aimed to develop and validate convolutional neural network-based artificial intelligence (AI) models: lesion detection, differential diagnosis (AI-DDx), and invasion depth (AI-ID; pT1a vs pT1b among EGC) models. METHODS: This study included 1366 consecutive patients with gastric mucosal lesions from 2 referral centers in Korea. One representative endoscopic image from each patient was used. Histologic diagnoses were set as the criterion standard. Performance of the AI-DDx (training/internal/external validation set, 1009/112/245) and AI-ID (training/internal/external validation set, 620/68/155) was compared with visual diagnoses by independent endoscopists (stratified by novice [<1 year of experience], intermediate [2-3 years of experience], and expert [>5 years of experience]) and EUS results, respectively. RESULTS: The AI-DDx showed good diagnostic performance for both internal (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC] = .86) and external validation (AUROC = .86). The performance of the AI-DDx was better than that of novice (AUROC = .82, P = .01) and intermediate endoscopists (AUROC = .84, P = .02) but was comparable with experts (AUROC = .89, P = .12) in the external validation set. The AI-ID showed a fair performance in both internal (AUROC = .78) and external validation sets (AUROC = .73), which were significantly better than EUS results performed by experts (internal validation, AUROC = .62; external validation, AUROC = .56; both P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: The AI-DDx was comparable with experts and outperformed novice and intermediate endoscopists for the differential diagnosis of gastric mucosal lesions. The AI-ID performed better than EUS for evaluation of invasion depth.

Yttrium-90 Radioembolization Is Associated with Better Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Compared with Conventional Chemoembolization: A Propensity Score-Matched Study.

BACKGROUND: Both trans-arterial radioembolization (TARE) and conventional trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) can effectively control hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients who are not suitable for curative resection. This study compared the effectiveness of TARE and conventional TACE as the initial trans-arterial treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) assessed by tumor response and clinical outcomes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Data were retrospectively analyzed the propensity score-matched cohort for overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and intrahepatic PFS in patients who have received TARE or TACE as the first HCC treatment from March 2012 to December 2017. RESULTS: A total of 138 patients initially treated with TARE (n = 54) or TACE (n = 84) was included in this study. Of 138 patients, median age was 59 years and the mean follow-up period was 27.6 months. TARE showed better OS (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.31-0.92, log-rank P = 0.02), better PFS (HR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.36-0.97, log-rank P = 0.04), and better intrahepatic PFS (HR = 0.51, 95% CI = 0.30-0.88, log-rank P = 0.01) compared with TACE. TARE was an independent prognostic factor for OS (adjusted HR [aHR] = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.30-0.90, P = 0.02), PFS (aHR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.35-0.94, P = 0.03), and intrahepatic PFS (aHR = 0.49, 95% CI = 0.28-0.84, P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: TARE as initial trans-arterial treatment is associated with better clinical outcomes such as longer OS compared with TACE in patients with HCC.

Comparison of Overall Survival between Surgical Resection and Radiofrequency Ablation for Hepatitis B-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

It remains controversial whether surgical resection, compared to radiofrequency ablation (RFA), improves overall survival (OS) in patients with early hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to compare OS after RFA with that after resection for HCC. This retrospective study included patients who underwent RFA or surgical resection as initial treatment for hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related HCC at a very early or early stage. A total of 761 patients (RFA, n = 194; resection, n = 567) from Seoul National University Hospital (Seoul, South Korea) and 1277 patients (RFA, n = 352; resection, n = 925) from the Korean Primary Liver Cancer Registry were included in the hospital and nationwide cohorts, respectively. Primary and secondary endpoints were OS and recurrence-free survival (RFS), respectively. Additional analysis was performed when the history of the antiviral treatment and the type of prescribed nucleos(t)ide analogue were confirmed. The rate of complications was compared between the two treatment groups in the hospital cohort. Baseline characteristics were balanced, using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). In the hospital cohort, the RFA group had a smaller mean tumor size (1.7 vs. 3.9 cm) but a higher proportion of cirrhotic patients than the resection group (85.6% vs. 63.1%) (both p < 0.01). During 81.0 (interquartile range, 62.3-107.1) months of follow-up, there was no difference in OS (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 0.870, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.400-1.897, p = 0.73) and RFA was associated with shorter RFS (aHR = 1.562, 95% CI = 1.099-2.219, p = 0.01) after employing IPTW. Antiviral treatment was independently associated with longer OS (aHR = 0.444, 95% CI = 0.251-0.786, p = 0.01) as well as RFS (aHR = 0.544, 95% CI = 0.391-0.757, p < 0.01) in the hospital cohort. In the nationwide cohort, there was no difference in OS (aHR = 0.981, 95% CI = 0.661-1.456, p = 0.92) between the two treatment groups when adjusted for antiviral treatment, which was a negative independent risk factor for mortality (aHR = 0.655, 95% CI = 0.451-0.952, p = 0.03) after IPTW. Among patients treated with tenofovir (n = 96) or entecavir (n = 184) in the hospital cohort, there was no difference in either OS (aHR = 0.522, 95% CI = 0.058-4.724, p = 0.56) or RFS (aHR = 1.116, 95% CI = 0.738-1.688, p = 0.60). The overall incidence of complications was higher in the resection group (26.3%) than in the RFA group (13.9%) (p < 0.01). RFA may provide comparable OS to resection in the treatment of very early or early HCC with a lower rate of complications, although RFS is marginally shorter than in the resection group after adjusting for antiviral treatment. Regardless of the type of NA, antiviral treatment in patients with HBV-related HCC is strongly associated with both OS and RFS.

Effectiveness of Transarterial Chemoembolization-First Treatment for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Still in real-world practice, advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients are treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). This study compared the therapeutic effectiveness of initial TACE treatment and initial sorafenib treatment in advanced HCC patients. PATIENT AND METHODS: Advanced HCC patients initially treated with sorafenib or TACE were included in this study. Treatment crossover due to an unfavorable response to initial treatment was allowed. Propensity score (PS) matching was applied for balancing baseline characteristics. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS) and the secondary outcomes included tumor response. RESULTS: A total of 554 patients were included in this study: 85 were initially treated with sorafenib (the sorafenib-first group) and 469 with TACE (the TACE-first group). In the entire cohort, the TACE-first group was associated with lower risk of death [adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=0.75, P=0.04]. In the PS-matched cohort (85 patients per group), the TACE-first group showed longer OS than the sorafenib-first group in both univariable (HR=0.68, P=0.02) and multivariable analyses (adjusted HR=0.58, P=0.002). Specifically, within both the entire and the PS-matched cohorts, the TACE-first group showed longer OS in subgroups with major portal vein tumor thrombosis (HR=0.72, P=0.048; HR=0.52, P=0.003) or infiltrative HCC (HR=0.42, P<0.001; HR=0.30, P=0.004, respectively). The objective response rate was higher in the TACE-first group (29.3% vs 14.7%, P=0.03) within the PS-matched cohort. CONCLUSION: For advanced HCC, initial TACE leads to longer OS with a more favorable tumor response than initial sorafenib treatment. Intrahepatic tumor control with initial locoregional therapy may be a potent strategy for advanced HCC.

Deep learning model for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis on antiviral therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Personalised risk prediction of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among patients with liver cirrhosis on potent antiviral therapy is important for targeted screening and individualised intervention. This study aimed to develop and validate a new model for risk prediction of HCC development based on deep learning, and to compare it with previously reported risk models. METHODS: A novel deep-learning-based model was developed from a cohort of 424 patients with HBV-related cirrhosis on entecavir therapy with 2 residual blocks, including 7 layers of a neural network, and it was validated using an independent external cohort (n = 316). The deep-learning-based model was compared to 6 previously reported models (platelet, age, and gender-hepatitis B score [PAGE-B], Chinese University HCC score [CU-HCC], HCC-Risk Estimating Score in CHB patients Under Entecavir [HCC-RESCUE], age, diabetes, race, etiology of cirrhosis, sex, and severity HCC score [ADRESS-HCC], modified PAGE-B score [mPAGE], and Toronto HCC risk index [THRI]) using Harrell's concordance (c)-index. RESULTS: During a median 5.2 yr of follow-up (inter-quartile range 2.8-6.9 yr), 86 patients (20.3%) developed HCC. The deep-learning-based model had a Harrell's c-index of 0.719 in the derivation cohort and 0.782 in the validation cohort. Goodness of fit was confirmed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p >0.05). Moreover, this model in the validation cohort had the highest c-index among the 6 previously reported models: PAGE-B (0.570), CU-HCC (0.548), HCC-RESCUE (0.577), ADRESS-HCC (0.551), mPAGE (0.598), and THRI (0.587) (all p <0.001). The misclassification rate of this model was 23.7% (model accuracy: 76.3%) in the validation group. CONCLUSIONS: The deep-learning-based model had better performance than the previous models for predicting the HCC risk in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis on potent antivirals. LAY SUMMARY: For early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma, it is important to maintain regular surveillance. However, there is currently no standard prediction model for risk stratification that can be used to establish a personalised surveillance strategy. We develop and validate a deep-learning-based model that showed better performance than previous models.

Novel Model to Predict HCC Recurrence after Liver Transplantation Obtained Using Deep Learning: A Multicenter Study.

Several models have been developed using conventional regression approaches to extend the criteria for liver transplantation (LT) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria. We aimed to develop a novel model to predict tumor recurrence after LT by adopting artificial intelligence (MoRAL-AI). This study included 563 patients who underwent LT for HCC at three large LT centers in Korea. Derivation (n = 349) and validation (n = 214) cohorts were independently established. The primary outcome was time-to-recurrence after LT. A MoRAL-AI was derived from the derivation cohort with a residual block-based deep neural network. The median follow-up duration was 74.7 months (interquartile-range, 18.5-107.4); 204 patients (36.2%) had HCC beyond the Milan criteria. The optimal model consisted of seven layers including two residual blocks. In the validation cohort, the MoRAL-AI showed significantly better discrimination function (c-index = 0.75) than the Milan (c-index = 0.64), MoRAL (c-index = 0.69), University of California San Francisco (c-index = 0.62), up-to-seven (c-index = 0.50), and Kyoto (c-index = 0.50) criteria (all p < 0.001). The largest weighted parameter in the MoRAL-AI was tumor diameter, followed by alpha-fetoprotein, age, and protein induced by vitamin K absence-II. The MoRAL-AI had better predictability of tumor recurrence after LT than conventional models. The MoRAL-AI can also evolve with further data.

A differential risk assessment and decision model for Transarterial chemoembolization in hepatocellular carcinoma based on hepatic function.

BACKGROUND: The decision of transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) initiation and/or repetition remains challenging in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim was to develop a prognostic scoring system to guide TACE initiation/repetition. METHODS: A total of 597 consecutive patients who underwent TACE as their initial treatment for unresectable HCC were included. We derived a prediction model using independent risk factors for overall survival (OS), which was externally validated in an independent cohort (n = 739). RESULTS: Independent risk factors of OS included Albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, maximal tumor size, alpha-fetoprotein, and tumor response to initial TACE, which were used to develop a scoring system ("ASAR"). C-index values for OS were 0.733 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.570-0.871) in the derivation, 0.700 (95% CI = 0.445-0.905) in the internal validation, and 0.680 (95% CI = 0.652-0.707) in the external validation, respectively. Patients with ASAR< 4 showed significantly longer OS than patients with ASAR≥4 in all three datasets (all P < 0.001). Among Child-Pugh class B patients, a modified model without TACE response, i.e., "ASA(R)", discriminated OS with a c-index of 0.788 (95% CI, 0.703-0.876) in the derivation, and 0.745 (95% CI, 0.646-0.862) in the internal validation, and 0.670 (95% CI, 0.605-0.725) in the external validation, respectively. Child-Pugh B patients with ASA(R) < 4 showed significantly longer OS than patients with ASA(R) ≥ 4 in all three datasets (all P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: ASAR provides refined prognostication for repetition of TACE in patients with unresectable HCC. For Child-Pugh class B patients, a modified model with baseline factors might guide TACE initiation.

Epidemiological and Clinical Characteristics of Hepatitis C Virus Infection in South Korea from 2007 to 2017: A Prospective Multicenter Cohort Study.

Background/Aims: This study aimed to elucidate the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients in South Korea from 2007 to 2017 and to compare the treatment patterns between two periods before and after the first approval of direct-acting antivirals (DAA) in South Korea in 2015. Methods: This prospective, multicenter cohort enrolled 2,758 patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) viremia at seven tertiary centers, and clinical data were prospectively collected with questionnaire surveys focused on lifetime risk factors related to HCV infection. Results: The HCV patients had a mean age of 57.3 years (50.8% male). Among them, 14.3% showed a positive history of transfusion before HCV screening and 5.6% reported intravenous drug use (IVDU), with significant differences in these risk factors between men and women. The proportions of patients with chronic hepatitis, liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were 69.5%, 18.9%, and 11.5%, respectively. The mean alanine aminotransaminase level was within the upper normal limit at 49.9%, and the major genotypes were 1b (48.2%) and 2 (46.4%). The overall treatment rate was 53.8%, showing a rapid transition from interferon-based therapy to DAA therapy. In the post-DAA-approval era, the untreated group was older, had a higher prevalence of HCC, and had less education than the treated group. Conclusions: More than 90% of CHC patients were over 40 years old, the major genotypes were 1b and 2, and IVDU was observed in less than 6% of CHC patients. Approximately half of the patients underwent antiviral therapy even in the DAA era, showing an unmet need with regard to HCV elimination.

Long-term Nucleotide Analogue Treatment Has Higher Levels of Renal Toxicities than Does Entecavir in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B.

Background/Aims: Renal toxicity is a concern in patients with chronic hepatitis B taking nucleotide analogues, such as adefovir (ADV) and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF). We sought to determine the long-term renal effects of nucleotide analogue treatment versus entecavir (ETV) treatment. Methods: In this retrospective single-center study, we selected 87 patients who were treated with ADV and subsequently with TDF from June 2008 to December 2013. ETV-treated patients were matched by treatment duration. We analyzed the creatinine increase over 0.5 mg/dL, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decrease over 25%, phosphorus decrease under 2.0 mg/dL, and dose reduction of antiviral agents. Results: The median follow-up period was 60.0 months for both groups. The incidence of liver cirrhosis was higher in the ADV-TDF group than in the ETV group (32.2% vs 74.7%, p<0.01). Creatinine increased in both groups during follow-up, but the difference was not significant (5.7% and 2.3%, p=0.44). In addition, GFR decreased more often in the ADV-TDF group than in the ETV group (31.0% and 14.9%, p=0.01). After multivariate Cox regression analysis, ADV-TDF treatment was significantly associated with a GFR decrease over 25% (hazard ratio, 2.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.08 to 4.10; p=0.03) after adjusting for the baseline GFR decrease. Conclusions: Patients taking nucleotide analogues had a significantly higher number of renal events than did those taking ETV. Clinicians should be aware of the development of renal toxicity in this patient population. Further long-term studies are warranted.

Radiologic Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease Increases the Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Suppressed Chronic Hepatitis B.

BACKGROUND AND GOALS: Although nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a risk factor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), it is unclear whether NAFLD additionally increases the risk of HCC among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. This study evaluated the association between NAFLD and the risk of HCC in patients whose hepatitis B virus (HBV) was well controlled. STUDY: This study included consecutive CHB patients whose serum HBV DNA levels were continuously suppressed <2000 IU/mL with antiviral treatment. Fatty liver was radiologically diagnosed. Patients with concomitant hepatitis C infection, autoimmune hepatitis, or excessive alcohol use were excluded. RESULTS: Among 826 patients, 86 patients (10.4%) developed HCC during the study period (median, 43.1 mo). The patients with NAFLD (N=260) had a significantly higher risk for HCC compared with patients without NAFLD (N=566) (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.63; P=0.03) after adjustment for age, the presence of cirrhosis, hepatitis B envelop antigen positivity, low-level viremia and hypertension. There was significant association between incomplete biochemical response (IBR) (alanine aminotransferase levels ≥40 IU/L) and the presence of NAFLD (P<0.001 by χ test). IBR at the time of virological response was associated with a significantly higher risk of HCC development (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-2.54; P=0.03). CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD increases the risk of HCC in patients with CHB in whom HBV is effectively suppressed by antivirals. Patients with IBR should be suspected of concurrent NAFLD. Further study is warranted to evaluate whether improvement of NAFLD might decrease the risk of HCC development.

Tumor Marker-Based Definition of the Transarterial Chemoembolization-Refractoriness in Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Multi-Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: For patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the definition of refractoriness to transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), which might make them a candidate for systemic therapy, is still controversial. We aimed to derive and validate a tumor marker-based algorithm to define the refractoriness to TACE in patients with intermediate-stage HCC. METHODS: This multi-cohort study was comprised of patients who underwent TACE for treatment-naïve intermediate-stage HCC. We derived a prediction model for overall survival (OS) using the pre- and post-TACE model to predict tumor recurrence after living donor liver transplantation (MoRAL) (i.e., MoRAL score = 11×√protein induced by vitamin K absence-II + 2×√alpha-fetoprotein), which was proven to reflect both tumor burden and biologic aggressiveness of HCC in the explant liver, from a training cohort (n = 193). These results were externally validated in both an independent hospital cohort (from two large-volume centers, n = 140) and a Korean National Cancer Registry sample cohort (n = 149). RESULTS: The changes in MoRAL score (ΔMoRAL) after initial TACE was an independent predictor of OS (MoRAL-increase vs. MoRAL-non-increase: adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 2.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.37-3.46, p = 0.001; median OS = 18.8 vs. 37.8 months). In a subgroup of patients with a high baseline MoRAL score (≥89.5, 25th percentile and higher), the prognostic impact of ΔMoRAL was more pronounced (MoRAL-increase vs. MoRAL-non-increase: HR = 3.68, 95% CI = 1.54-8.76, p < 0.001; median OS = 9.9 vs. 37.4 months). These results were reproduced in the external validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: The ΔMoRAL after the first TACE, a simple and objective index, provides refined prognostication for patients with intermediate-stage HCC. Proceeding to a second TACE may not provide additional survival benefits in cases of a MoRAL-increase after the first TACE in patients with a high baseline MoRAL score (≥89.5), who might be candidates for systemic therapy.

Publisher Correction: Differential Effect of HCV Eradication and Fibrosis Grade on Hepatocellular Carcinoma and All-cause Mortality.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.